Atlantic Niño/Niña Prediction Skills in NMME Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
The Atlantic Niño/Niña, one of the dominant interannual variability in equatorial Atlantic, exerts prominent influence on Earth’s climate, but its prediction skill shown previously was unsatisfactory and limited to two three months. By diagnosing recently released North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models, we find that Niño/Niña skills are improved, with multi-model ensemble (MME) reaching five season-dependent. Specifically, they show a marked dip boreal spring, suggesting suffers “spring predictability barrier” like ENSO. is higher for Niña than Niño, better developing phase decaying phase. amplitude bias primarily attributed annual cycle sea surface temperature (SST). anomaly correlation coefficient scores large extent, depend Niño3.4 index preceding winter, implying precedent ENSO may greatly affect development following summer.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Atmosphere
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2073-4433']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070803